Species Distribution Modelling

How science can help us fight the climate change

Climate changes became severe problem in the last decade. This problem affects all species, including the ones that have economic importance for humans. Conservation of species is not only important for conservation of biodiversity in total, but bears a specific significance for agriculture as well.


By predicting how climate change affects certain species, it is possible to minimalize or, in some cases, even prevent its negative effect. Modelling of species distributions, performed by BioSense researchers for both plants and animals, relies on determining favourable areas where some species can persist, based upon their known distribution and climatic conditions of the region. Obtained information is used for ecosystem management planning, which is especially important for forest ecosystems and agroecosystems in Vojvodina region, which are severely affected by the changing climate. Namely, by knowing the type of climate which will prevail in this region in 20 to 50 years, actions can be taken to minimise the potential loss. For example, different types of crops can be recommended, so that the ones with higher tolerance for draught and high temperatures are selected.


BioSense researchers use species distribution models to estimate potential spreading of some invasive species (e.g. weeds) or pests, as well as to assess the effect of climate change on distribution of insect pollinator species.

Current and predicted future potential distribution developed by BioSense researchers reveal that Cheilosia lenta Becker, 1894 will almost entirely disappear from South-East Europe.